abstract

In the morning of February 26, SF holdings disclosed the progress announcement of its subsidiary SF Tyson's participation in Hubei International Logistics core hub project. The new Hubei Ezhou civil airport of the project was approved by the State Council and the Central Military Commission. Stimulated by this news, the share price of SF holdings once rose by the limit in early trading yesterday, which led to a sharp rise in the share prices of many companies in the logistics sector.

In the morning of February 26, SF holdings disclosed the progress announcement of its subsidiary SF Tyson's participation in Hubei International Logistics core hub project. The new Hubei Ezhou civil airport of the project was approved by the State Council and the Central Military Commission. Stimulated by this news, the share price of SF holdings once rose by the limit in early trading yesterday, which led to a sharp rise in the share prices of many companies in the logistics sector.

"SF's participation in the construction of the airport is not new news. It can cause such a big response in the market. Behind it is the recognition of investors for the whole logistics industry." A brokerage researcher interviewed by the reporter said that the ability to participate in the construction of the airport shows that the leading enterprises in China's logistics industry have considerable strength. Especially in the past two years, leading companies have landed in the capital market and obtained funds and convenient financing channels.

"The industry trend in the next few years is relatively clear. The leading enterprises with capital support will further accelerate their expansion and seize the market. The market concentration will be further improved, and the competition among the leaders will be further intensified, but it is not necessarily a price war." The researcher said.

Capital helps accelerate expansion

According to the announcement of SF holdings, the total investment of Hubei International Logistics core hub project is 37.26 billion yuan, including 18.36 billion yuan of airport project, which is jointly raised by enterprises such as Hubei Province and SF Tyson. The national development and Reform Commission and civil aviation administration support the function arrangement of passenger branch line of the airport, investment in the central budget and civil aviation development fund; The transfer center project is RMB 13.5 billion and the SF Airlines base project is RMB 4.62 billion, which will be financed by SF Tyson.

"SF has this strength." The person in charge of a logistics company told the Shanghai Securities News reporter. According to the review announcement, in December 2017, SF Tyson signed the joint venture contract of Hubei International Logistics Airport Co., Ltd. with Hubei Communications Investment Group and Shenzhen Agricultural Bank of China Airport Investment Co., Ltd. SF Tyson invested 2.3 billion yuan with its own funds to participate in the establishment of Hubei International Logistics Airport Co., Ltd., with a shareholding ratio of 46%.

The reporter learned from the local government departments in Hubei that as early as June 2013, SF planned to build an international logistics core hub airport in Hubei to improve its air transportation network layout; In November 2014, Ezhou Yanji was included in the comparison and selection scope as one of the seven alternative sites; In April 2016, the National Civil Aviation Administration approved Yanji as the recommended site of Ezhou civil airport; In September 2016, the pre feasibility study report of Ezhou civil airport was submitted to the State Civil Aviation Administration; In September 2017, the airport pre feasibility study report and relevant attachments were submitted to the State Council and the Central Military Commission for approval; In December 2017, the hub project started construction of 8 supporting projects.

"At this stage, the whole express industry is in the stage of rapid expansion of production capacity. Strictly speaking, the production capacity of the whole industry is still insufficient, and the leading companies have been listed and found capital sources or financing channels." The aforementioned brokerage said.

According to statistics, almost all raised and invested projects of logistics enterprises are invested in two directions: one is to strengthen the capacity-building of distribution centers and trunk lines, and the other is to improve the level of informatization. Taking Debang shares just listed as an example, the company disclosed that the raised funds intend to invest in the construction of direct sales outlets, the purchase of transportation vehicles, the purchase of express vehicles and equipment, the construction of information integration platform, etc., in order to expand market share.

SF is by no means the one with the dream of an airport. Yuantong has previously disclosed that it intends to build its own aviation base in Jiaxing, Zhejiang. Relevant executives of the company said yesterday that the matter was still planning in response to questions from reporters of Shanghai Securities News.

Qualitative changes are taking place in the industry

"Qualitative changes are taking place in the industry." Su Baoliang, a researcher at Guojin securities, described the express industry in the latest industry research report.

Su Baoliang believes that benefiting from the high growth of online shopping and the continuous maturity of reverse logistics, it is expected that the express business volume will continue to grow at a high speed of 20% to 30% in the next two or three years. At the same time, due to the change of customer demand and the state's attention to industrial safety, the express industry will also undergo a series of industrial standardization changes. In this process, express delivery costs such as labor, warehousing and transportation will rise to a certain extent. Finally, enterprises with scale advantages and capital advantages will stand out and the industry concentration will be further improved.

At present, some industry giants are still accelerating to seize the market. Taking Yunda shares as an example, according to the operating data disclosed by the company, in January this year, Yunda shares completed 486 million business tickets, a year-on-year increase of 137%; The revenue from express service business was 975 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118%; Single ticket revenue was 2.01 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.99%. According to this calculation, the business volume growth of Yunda shares exceeded the industry growth by 60 percentage points, and the market share increased to 12.5% from 11.8% last month.

The overall market share of several giants is also increasing. According to the data of January this year, CR8 (the market share of the top 8 enterprises in the industry) was 80%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the whole year of 2017, and the market concentration increased further slightly. According to the calculation of securities companies, the city's share has reached a new high in recent three years, behind which is the transformation and elimination of third and fourth tier express enterprises.

The steady increase in market share (business volume) gives leading enterprises room to raise prices. For example, Shentong disclosed in its business data briefing in January that one of the reasons for the sharp increase in business income was the rise in the price of paper bills. According to Shenwan Hongyuan's analysis, this is the first time that Shentong's announcement mentioned the rise in the price of paper noodles, which is also the first time in history. The main purpose should be to improve the proportion of electronic noodles, and Yunda, Yuantong and other high probability will follow up. It is disclosed that Shentong express completed 357 million tickets in January this year, a year-on-year increase of 69%; The revenue from express service business was 1.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.72%.

"Will the big expansion of giants bring about a price war? We don't think it will be in the short term. First, the whole industry is still in the stage of rapid growth and still lack of production capacity; second, the industry's leading companies have been listed, have capital backing and profit pressure, and the price war can't be effective in the short term." The aforementioned Securities researcher said.